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Emory professor predicted the election turnout

By Troi Charity and Breanna Wimby

Slides of Alan Abramowitz predictions. Breanna Wimby/ Collegian staff

Alan Abramowitz, professor of political science at Emory, has been successfully predicting the popular vote for presidential elections since 1988.

On October 15, Abramowitz presented his presidential election prediction at GPC’s Cole Auditorium on Clarkston campus hours before President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney would have their second presidential debate.
Abramowitz predicted on July 27 this election will be close with a one percent difference between them, long before any debates or party conventions occurred.
Abramowitz explained how he prediction method by calculating the current presidents net approval rating mid-year, growth rate of GDP in second quarter of election year, and first term incumbency advantage modified by effect of partisan polarization.
“It isn’t rocket science, it’s political science,” said Abramowitz in regards to his forumula.
The campaign trail is a different matter considering the amount of money being spent.  Abramowitz touched on the millions of dollars that each candidate has received from various corporations, Political Action Committees (PAC) and individual donations. On average 30 (checking this number) million dollars would be spent on commercials attacking the opposite party. Abramowitz said that “even though money isn’t a factor it is still used for negative campaigning.”

About Victoria Song

Business Major at GPC, Dunwoody.

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